Author: Basheer Abuelaish
The Gaza Strip has been a theatre of conflict for decades. Each of these conflicts has left its mark, and a significant environmental footprint has developed in the Gaza Strip over time. The population growth rate and the urban expansion it drives affect the whole region. In general people prefer to live close to the urban facilities and infrastructures, usually found in the center of the residential areas, and to avoid the dangerous areas. The Gaza Strip has been directly involved in many wars, most recently in 2008, 2012 and 2014. The 2014 war was the most destructive in terms of buildings and infrastructure. The Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip was launched on 8th July and continued until 26th August 2014. It left devastation all across this region, ranging from damage to complete destruction of thousands of homes. Post-war reconstruction is likely to exacerbate the normal urban growth rate, so placing a greater burden on this already congested country.
Land use and land cover change is a major global environmental change issue, and projecting changes are essential for the assessment of the environment. The Gaza Strip will have grown over 2.4 million inhabitants by 2023, and the land demands will exceed the sustainable capacity of land use by far. Land use planning is one of the most difficult issues in the Gaza Strip given that this area is too small. Continuous urban and industrial growth will place additional stress on land cover, unless appropriate integrated planning and management actions are instituted immediately. Planners need further statistics and estimation tools to achieve their vision for the future based on sound information. Therefore, this study combines the use of satellite remote sensing with geographic information systems (GISs). The spatial database is developed by using five Landsat images gathered in 1972, 1982, 1990, 2002 and 2013. Three GIS models are selected for simulation by the year 2023: Geomod, CA_Markov and Land Change Modele rusing Idrisi Selva. The projected urban area will have under gone an increase of 212.3 km2 by the year 2023 in the used models, and the percentage of urban are awill account for 58.83 % of the Gaza strip by 2023.
Analysis of land use and land cover change is of prime importance for understanding the ecological dynamics resulting from natural and human activities, and for the assessment and prediction of environmental change. The population of the Gaza Strip will have grown to more than 2.4 million by 2023 all of whom are forced to live within an area of some 365 km2. This growth in population will lead to an increase in land demand, and will far exceed the sustainable land use capacity. The Gaza Strip is a relatively small area in which land use planning has not kept up with land development. Continued urban expansion and population growth in the future will place additional stress on land cover, unless appropriate integrated planning and management decisions are taken immediately. Decision-makers need further statistics and estimation tools to achieve their vision for the future of the Gaza Strip based on sound, accurate information. This study combines the use of satellite remote sensing with geographic information systems (GISs). The spatial database was developed by using six Landsat images taken in 1972, 1982, 1990, 2002, 2013 and 2014, together with different geodatabases for those years. Five past trend scenarios were selected for simulation to be completed by the year 2023 using the Land Change Modeler in the Idrisi Terrset software. These different scenarios, one of which takes into account the damage incurred during the 2014 War, try to cover the possible variations in areas and spatial distribution resulting from changes in land use. As an average over the five scenarios, by 2023 the projected urban area will have increased to 206.24 km2 or 57.13% of the Gaza Strip.
Keywords: Land use, groundwater, salinity, scenario, seawater intrusion, urban, modelling, GIS, remote sensing.
Basheer Abuelaish, PhD. Regional Geographical Analysis and Land Development. University of Granada, Granada, Spain. Chairperson Department of Remote Sensing, Environment Quality Authority, PNA, Gaza Strip, Palestine. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
